Beware of Junk Science. Let me take you through a thought experiment...
Imagine you are driving up a steep hill and find yourself behind someone pushing a stalled car up that hill. You see it's a pretty good size SUV, and yet one man is pushing it not much slower than he can walk unencumbered on level ground. You think to yourself "That man is pretty strong!" You may also conclude that pushing an SUV up a hill isn't as tough as you might have expected, if only one man can do it - regardlessof his individual strength.
Since you've got some time, you run a few numbers in your head and determine that each of his steps moves the car three feet and burns so many calories of energy. You conclude that given his probable weight, and the distance to go, he will arrive at the top of the hill in 25 minutes about 3 pounds lighter. All this is from your vantage point of being behind the man pushing the SUV. But what if you look at itdifferently?
Well, if you were to look at it from the side, you would also see his three equally burly friends PULLING the car by a rope attached to the front bumper. From this perspective, the impact of the man in the back drops significantly. While he is still contributing to the effort, he is only doing 1/4 or less of the actual work. This little scenario demonstrates the importance of understanding all the variables contributing to a problem, and one of the reasons why I don't subscribeto the current hysteria of global warming.
The problem with the global warming fad is that I don't believe the "scientists" really understand the phenomenon they are studying. I also don't believe they are looking at all the contributing factors, nor are they properly weighting the ones they are counting. If they were, then the correlation between CO2 emissions and global temperature rise would be closer. In actuality, I have seen reports that global temperature rise more closely matches the fluctuations of solar activity and its interactions with the Earth's magnetic field - factors most of the"scientists" ignore or underestimate.
Also, many temperature readings used by the "scientists" are taken in or around population centers or at airports. Large numbers of people and large areas of concrete are going to produce local temperature spikes. But, temperature readings taken by satellite over the Earth's
oceans...4/5 of the planet's area, do not support the panic. The average global temperature may be rising, but not as fast as the fear-mongers would have us believe.
As an engineer, I understand the difficulty of making computer simulations of complex, multi-variable systems. The atmosphere is a very complicated system...so complicated, in fact, that the best models we can make of it still do not predict the weather with any significantly higher accuracy than 50 years ago - before computers and satellites. We've only begun to scratch the surface. We don't yet evenknow what we don't know about it.
CO2 emissions, ozone levels, solar radiation and the planet's magnetic field are all contributing factors. But we don't yet know what all the variables are. And I resist the political agenda that wants to push the idea of "bad humans...bad humans." While I have no problem with the
idea of working to reduce emissions and look for alternate, clean fuel sources, there are significant hurdles. The two largest being cost and efficiency.
What ever new energy system is introduced, people need to buy into it by buying it. So, they need to be able to afford it. If it's wonderfully efficient, but too expensive...then it will be relegated to a precious few and companies won't waste their time working on it too fast. Similarly, if it's cheap but inefficient, the same problem occurs...no one will buy it. Fuel cells have been around since the 1960's, but are too expensive for significant private use. Solar power has been aroundquite a while also...but it is still too inefficient.
Replacing oil will take time, and as that happens...slowly...the pollution of the atmosphere will go down. When that happens, if we still see the global temperature rising, what do we blame it on then if not our cars and factories? Maybe ourselves. After all there are 6billion of us...exhaling CO2 24/7. Hmm...let's see...
If I assume an average person's lungs holds 2 liters of CO2 per breath...
And an average person might breath 15 times a minute, or 900 times an hour or 21600 times a day...
That's 43200 liters or 43.2 cubic meters of CO2 per day, per person.
Multiply that by 6 billion, and that's 259.2 billion cubic meters of CO2 per day or ~107 trillion cubic meters per year.
Now, factor in population growth, and all the other mammals on the planet pumping out CO2 (and more mammals as well) and the numbers sound down right daunting. How soon before we fill up the atmosphere with CO2? We need to do something about all this rampant exhaling!!!!!!!!!
BREATH RATIONING!!!!!!!
Pretty stupid, huh? This is the stuff of junk science and media hype....not serious research and responsible journalism. Back in the early 1970's, many scientists believed the Earth was actually cooling and we were headed towards another ice age. I admit I need to read more on exactly what the Bush Administration's position on this is, but based on what I have heard, I don't think it is too far askew from reality. They don't entirely dismiss the problem...but they do want to make sure the science is sound, and they don't want to buy into the hysteria.
Worrying about the economy is also part of the President's job - if he didn't, the press would nail him for that, instead. Besides, our country is hardly the greatest offender...just look at China, Africa and what the locals are doing to the rain forests.
The Earth is 4.5 billion years old and has gone through repeated cycles of global heating and cooling - even within recorded history. This may be just another which, from our our limited perspective in time, we may never understand fully. In many ways, the planet doesn't even know we are here and will do as it darn well pleases. So, do your part as best as you can; slow down, turn off unneeded lights, support research into fuel economy and alternative fuels...but breath easy and relax. We'll get away from oil soon enough for the planet, if not the environmentalists. Until then, we need it and should not be afraid of it.
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